Sweeping Too Clean: Examining Series Results

The Cardinals were just swept by the Astros. While that in and of itself wouldn’t be disturbing (save the whole playoff implications bit), the fact that the sound of bristles against the floor is so familiar this year is.

Tony LaRussa preaches “winning the series”. While he doesn’t focus on sweeps, he does want to win the series because, usually, 2 of 3 is going to get you places. So, how does the 2006 squad stack up against the other TLR-led teams of the past 11 years?

Let’s look at series results first. The following table shows the number of series won, lost, and split, plus relevant percentages. A couple of notes follow after the table.

Team	Series Won	Series Lost	Series Split	Winning %	Nonlosing %
2006	26	23	1	.520	.540
2005	31	12	9	.596	.769
2004	35	13	4	.673	.731
2003	29	19	4	.558	.635
2002	29	18	5	.558	.654
2001	27	20	5	.519	.615
2000	31	21	1	.585	.604
1999	25	27	6	.431	.535
1998	21	23	10	.389	.574
1997	23	22	12	.404	.614
1996	25	19	8	.481	.635
Total	302	217	65	.517	.629

Table notes: Both 1997 and 2000 had a one game series, which was a make up game added somewhere in the season. Those were considered separate series. My research showed 58 series in 1999, 54 in 1998 and 57 (counting the one-gamer) in 1997. All other years were the 52 we are accustomed to.

This table seems to capture the total streakiness of this team. The winning percentage of series is not that good, but (with two series to go, of course) it does beat out the McGwire years plus the playoff years of 1996 and 2001. However, the nonlosing percentage (which is wins+splits divided by total series) only bests 1999, and could drop below that mark if the Cards lose to both San Diego and Milwaukee here in the last week.

To be fair, the years before 2000 were characterized by numerous two-game series as baseball desperately tried to figure out how to schedule teams with three divisions. Once the unbalanced schedule was returned, the number of two-game series was drastically reduced. That quirk is why you see so many splits in the late 90s, and why a team with a series winning percentage of under .400 could have a nonlosing percentage of close to .600.

Let’s take those years out of the equation. Let’s compare this team to the average of 2000-2005.

Team	Won	Lost	Split	Winning %	NL %
2006	26	23	1	.520	.540
2001-2005	30	17	5	.583	.692

This, of course, doesn’t tell us much that’s new. We know that the teams of the recent past, most especially the ’04-’05 juggernauts, were much more dominant teams while this one even has a chance to finish under .500. But how they are losing series may be an eye-opener.

I noticed that someone recently tallied up the number of times the Cardinals had been swept this year, counting 11 times. How does that compare to prior years? I was hoping you’d ask that.

Team	Swept Series	Were Swept	Sweep %	Margin
2006	9	11	.173	-2
2005	11	1	.211	10
2004	15	3	.288	12
2003	7	7	.135	0
2002	11	4	.212	7
2001	12	5	.231	7
2000	11	3	.208	8
1999	3	6	.052	-3
1998	11	7	.204	4
1997	5	12	.088	-7
1996	10	7	.192	3
Total	105	66	.180	39

Sweep percentage is the number of series swept divided by total number of series. Interestingly enough, the sweep percentage for this year’s team is just about the average for the TLR squads. But the “were swept” number is astounding. The Cards have been swept as many times this year as in the past three years combined. Only 1997, which again was loaded with two-game series, is anywhere close to this team’s mark.

Looking at the same comparison to the turn of the century teams:

Team	Swept Series	Were Swept	Sweep %	Margin
2006	9	11	.173	-2
2001-2005	11	4	.212	7

I’m not sure that the numbers tell us much, save the fact that there hasn’t been a strong pitcher to follow Carpenter. With the four middling starters after him, it’s easy enough to be staring at a sweep and, if Carpenter loses, a long losing streak. With a reliable number two, your odds of taking at least one game in a series increase dramatically.