After listening to the radio and hearing about another explosive outing by a Cardinal starter last night, it stirred a question in my mind that I’ve had way too often this season. Is this the worst year for major deficits? Seems like the Cards are giving up double digits most every night that Carpenter doesn’t pitch.
I set out to gather some info. Taking the last ten years (the Tony LaRussa era), I used Retrosheet and the schedule on ESPN to determine how often the Cardinals had given up 10 or more runs each season. I then looked at the box scores of those games to see what the score was after five innings. I also classified a “blowout loss” as a game where the opponent scored 10 or more and the Cardinals lost by at least eight.
So, what did I find? Let’s look at how many times this has come up in this time period:
|
Year |
G |
W |
L |
% |
|
2006 |
9 |
0 |
9 |
0.000 |
|
2005 |
7 |
0 |
7 |
0.000 |
|
2004 |
9 |
1 |
8 |
0.111 |
|
2003 |
9 |
2 |
7 |
0.222 |
|
2002 |
8 |
0 |
8 |
0.000 |
|
2001 |
13 |
1 |
12 |
0.077 |
|
2000 |
15 |
2 |
13 |
0.133 |
|
1999 |
15 |
0 |
15 |
0.000 |
|
1998 |
9 |
2 |
7 |
0.222 |
|
1997 |
8 |
0 |
8 |
0.000 |
|
1996 |
12 |
0 |
12 |
0.000 |
|
|
114 |
8 |
106 |
0.070 |
All years are complete years except for 2006, of course. So while the Cardinals are allowing double digits more than they have during this run of dominance since 2002, they aren’t quite the worst team LaRussa has had at doing this. That said, there are still 69 games to play. It’s possible that they may have 7 more of these types of games in them, but I think that’s pushing it. Also, the Cards don’t win much when they give up 10 or more, but that’s to be expected.
But how many of those double-digit games were considered blowouts?
|
Year |
G |
BL |
% BL |
|
2006 |
9 |
6 |
66.67% |
|
2005 |
7 |
2 |
28.57% |
|
2004 |
9 |
2 |
22.22% |
|
2003 |
9 |
5 |
55.56% |
|
2002 |
8 |
4 |
50.00% |
|
2001 |
13 |
7 |
53.85% |
|
2000 |
15 |
6 |
40.00% |
|
1999 |
15 |
6 |
40.00% |
|
1998 |
9 |
4 |
44.44% |
|
1997 |
8 |
4 |
50.00% |
|
1996 |
12 |
3 |
25.00% |
|
|
114 |
49 |
42.98% |
So normally, a little less than half the time the Cards
allow 10 or more, they don’t get within eight runs of their opponents.
Let’s look at the above in a slightly different way. If the Cards allow more than nine runs, how badly do they usually lose the game?
|
Year |
G |
Mgn |
AMgn |
|
2006 |
9 |
-74 |
-8.2 |
|
2005 |
7 |
-46 |
-6.6 |
|
2004 |
9 |
-48 |
-5.3 |
|
2003 |
9 |
-59 |
-6.6 |
|
2002 |
8 |
-55 |
-6.9 |
|
2001 |
13 |
-90 |
-6.9 |
|
2000 |
15 |
-89 |
-5.9 |
|
1999 |
15 |
-90 |
-6.0 |
|
1998 |
9 |
-43 |
-4.8 |
|
1997 |
8 |
-64 |
-8.0 |
|
1996 |
12 |
-51 |
-4.3 |
|
|
114 |
-709 |
-6.2 |
“Mgn” is the total margin of defeat in those games. “AMgn” is the average margin of defeat. As we can see here, the 2006 squad averages losing by 8 runs a game when their opponents score 10+. These are not your 10-8 or 12-7 slugfests here. These are the 20-6 and 14-4 drubbings that we have gotten accustomed to seeing this year. Look at 1996 and 1998, for example. When those teams opened the floodgates, the offense at least tried to keep up. This year is over a run worse other team except 1997, and as we’ll see, a lot of the issue then came late in the year.
OK, so who do we lay the blame on, the starters or the pen? It’s an easy answer this year, but let’s take a look anyway.
|
Year |
G |
RA5 |
RS5 |
ARA5 |
ARS5 |
|
2006 |
9 |
92 |
23 |
10 |
3 |
|
2005 |
7 |
56 |
15 |
8 |
2 |
|
2004 |
9 |
63 |
28 |
7 |
3 |
|
2003 |
9 |
66 |
20 |
7 |
2 |
|
2002 |
8 |
67 |
19 |
8 |
2 |
|
2001 |
13 |
114 |
43 |
9 |
3 |
|
2000 |
15 |
99 |
56 |
7 |
4 |
|
1999 |
15 |
100 |
58 |
7 |
4 |
|
1998 |
9 |
54 |
43 |
6 |
5 |
|
1997 |
8 |
59 |
19 |
7 |
2 |
|
1996 |
12 |
86 |
37 |
7 |
3 |
|
|
114 |
856 |
361 |
8 |
3 |
Definitions: RA5 is runs allowed through 5 innings, RS is runs scored in the same period, and the other two are the average per game of those two categories. As we can see, in 2006 games that fit our criteria, the Cards are down 10-3 after 5, which puts a big burden on the offense. The seven run gap is the largest on our chart. Look at 1998 to 2000, the prime McGwire years. The pitching may not have been up to par, but the offense kept the teams in the game. This year, either from demoralization or other factors, the offense isn’t able to produce early and so the holes get deep quick.
How much of this is skewed by
|
Year |
G |
|
|
2006 |
9 |
0 |
|
2005 |
7 |
0 |
|
2004 |
9 |
0 |
|
2003 |
9 |
1 |
|
2002 |
8 |
0 |
|
2001 |
13 |
2 |
|
2000 |
15 |
2 |
|
1999 |
15 |
0 |
|
1998 |
9 |
2 |
|
1997 |
8 |
1 |
|
1996 |
12 |
4 |
|
|
114 |
12 |
Twelve of these games were held in the Mile High Stadium,
but interestingly, the Cards haven’t allowed the
OK, so when do these games happen? In other words, even though the Cards have had nine such games this year, is that a decent pace or are we doomed for about 20 of these?
|
Year |
G |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sept/Oct |
|
2006 |
9 |
1 |
1 |
4 |
3 |
|
|
|
2005 |
7 |
2 |
0 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
|
2004 |
9 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
|
2003 |
9 |
1 |
0 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
|
2002 |
8 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
0 |
|
2001 |
13 |
4 |
1 |
4 |
2 |
2 |
0 |
|
2000 |
15 |
2 |
5 |
2 |
5 |
0 |
1 |
|
1999 |
15 |
1 |
5 |
4 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
|
1998 |
9 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
|
1997 |
8 |
0 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
3 |
|
1996 |
12 |
4 |
5 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
0 |
|
|
114 |
20 |
23 |
26 |
20 |
17 |
8 |
As you can see, typically most of these games happen earlier in the year, with June being the most likely time. It’s interesting that the old baseball axiom that says that hitting increases as the temperature does doesn’t quite fall in line here. August, the hottest month, trails some of the early months in this category.
I mentioned 1997 earlier. You can see that more than half of their games came from August on, which likely means that the pitchers were tiring. However, that was the year McGwire came over as well. It’s possible the addition of a big bat caused the pitchers to relax a little as well.
Conclusions on all of this fancy data? The idea that this year’s starters are giving up more runs earlier, digging bigger holes, and all in all deciding the game in the first few innings seems to have significant merit. It’s not just selective memory, at least not in recent history. This may lead Walt Jocketty to make a move for a pitcher and hope the offense can produce when they aren’t trailing so early, or maybe get a bat and hope to get to some of those 11-9 games.